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Tuesday, February 13, 2024

Latin America EV Gross sales Report, Half 3: Leaders on the Podium (Colombia, Uruguay, Costa Rica)

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And so we get to the final a part of our report, relating to the three nations main the area in EV gross sales. This podium has been secure for years, however, if the scenario in January is to final, essential modifications may very well be upon us. Nonetheless, so far as 2023 goes, these have been nonetheless the main nations within the area.

In the event you want to learn the earlier components of this report, you are able to do so right here:

Latin America 2023 EV Gross sales Report, Half 1: The Laggards (Argentina, Perú, Ecuador, Chile, Dominican Republic)

Latin America 2023 EV Gross sales Report, Half 2: The Promising Center (Mexico, Panama, Brazil, Puerto Rico)

#3. Colombia (2.9% plug-in car market share) 

Third in our rating is Colombia, a rustic with a comparatively small automotive market in comparison with its inhabitants. Regardless of being the third most populous nation in Latin America (behind Brazil and Mexico), it’s solely the fifth largest automotive market within the area, with 186,826 gentle and heavy autos being offered in 2023. Of those, 3,718 have been BEVs (2%) and 1,799 have been PHEVs (0.9%).

The Colombian EV market is especially advanced to grasp: two elements skew the info so {that a} rising market seems to be practically stagnant. First, there’s the acquisition of over 1,500 electrical buses, most of which have been delivered in H2 2021 and H1 2022. As soon as the final of these have been delivered in July 2022, progress turned extra clearly seen.

And second, there’s the truth that the Colombian car market is in freefall. An ideal storm of excessive rates of interest, low financial progress, and large devaluation (the latter having subsided in late 2023) induced complete car gross sales to break down, falling 30% in 2023. Which means comparatively gradual EV progress turned comparatively bigger proportionally.  

In recent times, the market has gravitated in the direction of 30% PHEV and 70% BEV, with PHEVs gaining extra traction since BYD introduced its DM-i line into the nation. Because the total market is falling, market share has truly elevated by fairly a bit greater than complete gross sales.  

As we will see, the nation was not removed from reaching 5% plug-in autos in December, however the charge of progress (averaging 43% yearly within the final 4 years) appears disappointing. Colombia is certain to lose its place on the rostrum if it doesn’t velocity up in 2024. It’s price stating that January is all the time a gradual month, and that yr on yr there was a 52% enhance in EV gross sales between January 2024 and January 2023. 

So far as the EV market goes, the Chinese language as soon as once more dominate, with all the podium and 6 out of the ten most offered fashions being from this nation, three being from Europe (counting Volvo as European), and, surprisingly, one being Japanese.

Incentives for EVs stay (decrease taxes, no VAT, no tariffs), however the single most essential motion that the Colombian authorities might take to advertise them could be to evaluation the advantages hybrids obtain. Massive Colombian cities, and Bogota particularly, have very strict restrictions for the transit of ICE fashions, however thus far, hybrids (and even delicate hybrids) have had the identical advantages as PHEVs and BEVs. If these are eliminated, and solely true EVs stay exempt, gross sales might get a big increase.

Both that or a big value discount that brings EVs nearer to cost parity with ICEVs. A number of manufacturers have introduced value cuts in the previous couple of weeks, together with JAC, Renault, JMC, and Seres. Nonetheless, the discount continues to be small, and the nation is in dire want of extra reasonably priced costs if EVs wish to have any hope of turning into mainstream. Nice Wall Motor, and particularly the ORA 03, has already landed in a number of nations within the area at aggressive costs … do they wish to begin a value conflict in Colombia? 

In any case, the value cuts have been introduced in late January, so we gained’t know the consequences till the tip of February. 

#2. Uruguay (3% BEV market share) 

Second in our listing is Uruguay, a market that has grown steadily at charges much like Mexico, however ranging from the next base. Uruguay additionally has one of many cleanest sources of electrical energy within the area, so the influence EVs make on carbon emissions is larger there. In 2024, a complete of 60,478 gentle and heavy autos have been offered, 1,799 of which have been BEVs, for 3% market share! 

Now, expensive readers, consider it or not, I needed to work fairly a bit to get this quantity, as a result of, get this: Nissan did it once more! Similar to in Ecuador, it managed to cross its hybrid X-Path off as a BEV! Although, fortunately, the mannequin offered fewer than 100 models, so the info was not that skewed. It’s unbelievable that two nations have fallen for a similar trick.

Uruguay has a really complete charging community and important advantages from EVs. It additionally has a really aggressive market the place, in response to native media, common EV costs went down by 11% between 2022 and 2023, making them extra reasonably priced for individuals. The federal government can also be offering incentives for taxis: 100 of them got in 2023, however there’s no data on what number of are deliberate for 2023.

Mannequin-wise, the rating is as soon as once more Chinese language dominated, with 7 out of 10 fashions being from that nation.

Most spectacular of all, when wanting on the most offered manufacturers, BYD completely crushes the competitors, getting 53% of the whole market: 

  1. BYD: 951
  2. JAC: 219
  3. BMW: 148
  4. Maxus: 76
  5. Volvo: 63 

Uruguay additionally began 2024 with a robust footing, with BEV gross sales rising to 144 models out of 4,166 complete gross sales, or 3.4% market share. That’s already forward of 2023’s end result. This additionally appears to be like like a promising yr for the Gaucho Nation! 

#1. Costa Rica (11.6% BEV market share) 

We end our raking with Costa Rica, a rustic that’s bolted forward of each different one on the continent! Irrespective of how far Brazil, Uruguay, or Colombia develop within the subsequent couple of years, it’s onerous to see them surpassing this small champion.

Costa Rica was already forward of the area in 2019, however progress in later years was not significantly excessive (25% in 2020, 46% in 2021, 41% in 2022). Nonetheless, issues sped up dramatically in 2023, with 204% progress yr on yr! And thus far in 2024 issues are additionally wanting shiny, as Costa Rica offered 96% extra EVs final month than in January 2023, making it the best-selling EV month within the nation’s historical past! 

Hybrids — together with gentle hybrids and PHEVs — comprise lower than 3% of gross sales within the nation, to allow them to be safely discounted. This is among the purest BEV markets there may be, and the purest one I find out about.

Market share is more durable to calculate. Costa Rica’s official information presents EVs offered and registered by month (which is the info offered within the graph above), however the complete autos registered should not accessible. Yearly imports can be found as an alternative, however these have a couple of months of mismatch with registrations, and BEVs could be underrepresented if measured that approach. 

The answer is to work with EV imports (current in a native weblog from Ale Montero), a few of that are nonetheless sitting on sellers’ heaps and gained’t be offered for a pair extra months (and, as such, don’t seem within the chart above). 6,312 BEVs have been imported in Costa Rica in 2023, which comprise 11.6% of the 54,554 autos imported in these years. This consists of gentle and heavy autos.  

Mannequin clever, as soon as once more we’ve got important presence from the Chinese language, however on this case, 4 European fashions managed to make it into the highest 10:

Costa Rica presents hope for European producers: as essentially the most developed EV market within the area, it has important presence of European fashions, and it appears to be the primary nation the place the ID.4 has made a touchdown.  

Model-wise, we’ve got a way more aggressive panorama than in Uruguay (the place BYD stood alone on the high), and even one European producer within the high 5! 

  1. BYD: 1,183 models
  2. Geely: 984 models
  3. BMW: 440 models
  4. JAC: 386 models
  5. MG: 382 models

If January is to be an indicator, 2024 may even convey nice progress to Costa Rica’s EV market, nevertheless it’s onerous to foretell the place it’s going to finish. One can hope for 25% market share, however I really feel someplace round 17% is extra believable. Time will inform!

And so, we end our report for Latin America in 2023. As I mentioned firstly, this would be the final of such studies. Sooner or later, I’ll report extra typically about nations the place the market growth is quicker and go away a mixed article for the laggards the place there isn’t a lot information … for now.

Regardless, I hope you loved it!

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