Imaginative and prescient Professional report paints the image of a distinct segment product with shocking set-up hurdles

Market and provide chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who has an extended historical past of reporting on Apple provide chain particulars, has a new report on Medium about Apple Imaginative and prescient Professional. There are quite a few particulars of doubtful windfall, however all of them paint the image of a really low-volume product that received’t transition to a preferred, millions-of-sales-per-year product line for fairly a very long time.

In accordance with Kuo, preliminary demand was increased than anticipated however has slowed down lots. The headset, which is presently solely obtainable within the U.S., is anticipated to promote solely 200,000-250,000 models this 12 months. That’s a rise of about 50,000 over Apple’s prior inside estimates, in line with Kuo, but it surely’s nonetheless a very area of interest product for Apple, which sells greater than 200 million iPhones a 12 months.

Kuo notes that among the small-capacity suppliers for Imaginative and prescient Professional components have elevated their capability from 500,000–600,000 models to 700,000–800,000 models per 12 months. Capability doesn’t equal the precise variety of components that can be ordered by Apple or produced, but it surely factors to Apple’s capacity to make extra Imaginative and prescient Professional headsets than can be required for the U.S. market alone. Kuo believes that Apple will begin to promote the headset in different markets starting earlier than WWDC in June.

The return price, in line with Kuo, is lower than 1 %, which appears fairly good for such a fledgling product with restricted use. In accordance with his survey of the restore/refurbishment manufacturing line, about 20-30 % of these returns are as a consequence of clients not figuring out how you can arrange Imaginative and prescient Professional, which is definitely a quantity Apple want to cut back. Ease of use and out-of-the-box setup is one among Apple’s trademark options so its shocking to see so many individuals have hassle, even when it does nonetheless symbolize a really small variety of customers.

Kuo claims that Apple has not but begun work on the successor to the Imaginative and prescient Professional (broadly anticipated to be two models: a less complicated cost-reduced mannequin and one other excessive finish “Professional” mannequin). A brand new mannequin is anticipated to enter manufacturing on the finish of 2025 or early 2026, however that mannequin is anticipated to have very comparable specs to the present model. It’s as an alternative targeted on enhancing manufacturing effectivity and value, not altering the person expertise.

Apple is gathering suggestions from customers and builders to tell the long run Imaginative and prescient product roadmap, however Kuo says {that a} new product with a considerably modified person expertise most likely received’t enter mass manufacturing till 2027. As for the present mannequin, the worldwide cargo forecast has risen from about half one million models to 650-700,000 models, however that’s nonetheless a really area of interest product for Apple and a fraction of the amount competitor Meta sells with its Quest headsets (estimated to be within the 5-10 million per 12 months vary).

So in the event you’re hoping to select up an “Apple Imaginative and prescient Air” for a value nearer to $1,499 you’re going to be ready some time, at the very least in line with Kuo.