Is the Apple Watch struggling an existential disaster?

In recent times, Apple has turn into fairly secretive in regards to the success of the Apple Watch. If it’s supplying figures for that product, they’re extra prone to be processor specs or serial numbers than unit gross sales, or imprecise proclamations, like a document variety of new customers purchased one in the course of the current quarter.

As an alternative, now we have needed to fall again on third-party sources of knowledge. Again in 2016, it was claimed that the Apple Watch had leapfrogged Rolex as the most well-liked watch, backed up by an evaluation of social mentions; this was later confirmed by official figures from the Swiss watch business. Nevertheless, this feat was much less spectacular than you would possibly assume. In accordance with information from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Trade, the nation as a complete exported between seven and eight million mechanical watches per yr main as much as the pandemic years; since 2021, this determine has leveled off at simply over six million models. These are small numbers compared to what could be anticipated from a serious Apple product line.

The difficult factor, once we’re making an attempt to determine the Apple Watch’s stage of success, is Apple’s coverage of mixing all wearables, dwelling and equipment merchandise into one class, then offering gross sales figures for that class as a complete. Nevertheless, the figures in Apple’s quarterly experiences since mid-2017 counsel that the Apple Watch probably accounts for almost all of its wearables gross sales. The Apple Watch is pricey and seemingly standard sufficient to simply dominate the class.

HomePods are a distinct segment product, as are the AirPods Max. AirPods and AirPods Professional can’t be known as low cost, however in comparison with the Apple Watch, they should promote considerably extra models to be related in any respect. And for those who take a look at Apple’s gross sales figures for wearables, you’ll discover a sample: they rise quickly within the first quarter of the yr, simply on the time when the primary three months of a brand new Apple Watch mannequin are within the books. In different phrases, we will say with affordable confidence that the fortunes of the wearables/dwelling class intently mirror the success of the Apple Watch itself.

What has been noticeable about wearables gross sales for the previous two years is that they nonetheless spike within the December quarter, however nowhere close to as excessive as in 2021 and, in some circumstances, 2020. That is all of the extra stunning when you think about that Apple launched the higher-priced Apple Watch Extremely a yr in the past, which was supposed to enhance this gross sales image. As an alternative, we see the other pattern. Wearables gross sales within the most up-to-date December quarter had been 11 % down on the identical interval within the earlier yr, which was itself 8 % down on the yr earlier than that.

What’s occurring with the Apple Watch?

The Apple Watch is way from doomed, and there’s a number of fluctuations occurring. However there are undoubtedly some worries for Tim Prepare dinner. Two components have in all probability come collectively to trigger the decline.

In 2020 and 2021, well being considerations in the course of the Covid-19 pandemic in all probability helped the Apple Watch to extend gross sales figures. Automated hand-wash detection nagged you to wash for a full 20 seconds. The blood-oxygen sensor launched in 2020 simply earlier than the pandemic engulfed the world was capable of detect a speedy drop in blood-oxygen ranges, one of many important indicators for the illness.)

However Covid restrictions have been largely lifted for 2 years now, and the illness has disappeared from the entrance pages of newspapers. Which implies a run of success has ended for the Apple Watch. And now new watches don’t even have the blood-oxygen sensor enabled, which is able to solely additional damage gross sales.

The improvements in the newest two generations of Apple Watch are not earth-shattering, both: crash detection, a more recent chip, and double faucet. All good issues to have, however not sufficient to push pleased homeowners of older fashions to improve. So the place does that depart the Apple Watch? One other well being disaster isn’t prone to come anytime quickly, and the sample of iteration moderately than innovation means that’s not going to alter anytime quickly.

This text initially appeared on Macwelt and was translated and edited by David Worth.